Who Makes Policy Campaign 2016 Edition

As world leaders convene at the U.N. this week, a deal was reached by officials to help bring relief to the millions of stranded refugees that have fled the middle east. The “New York Declaration”  calls for countries to reach a “global pact” on refugees…in 2018. I honestly do not know what the U.N. was trying to accomplish with this poor excuse for a “game-changing” agreement. I’m serious – the UNHCR issued a press release calling the declaration a “game changer”. What is so game-changing about an agreement to reach an agreement in two years? These refugees are in dire need of humanitarian assistance now – not two years from now. The whole situation has gotten more and more depressing by the day, but at least the U.N. can tell the refugees they tried.

 

There is a science to good polling. But there is also art. This piece in The Times takes a closer look at how the data for polls is analyzed and explain why even the best pollsters can look at the same numbers and come up with different results.

As is well known now, a series of unfortunate events unfolded over this past weekend.  There was the explosion in the Chelsea neighborhood in Manhattan that injured 29 people on 23rd Street between 6th and 7th Avenues on Saturday night.  There was the discovery of a pressure-cooker device just several blocks away from that blast.  That’s not to mention the bombs found in New Jersey, all of this culminating in yesterday’s New Jersey shootout and capture of suspect Ahmad Khan Rahami.  Adding on top of all of this were stabbings in Minnesota that terror group ISIS took credit for.

The situations that unfolded this weekend could have been worse.  A lot worse.  It is a reminder, however, that we do live in a dangerous world with people who want to harm our nation.

There are smart ways to respond to such a threat, taking a more measured approach that effectively tackles the problem at hand while protecting Americans’ civil liberties and the rights of groups that might particularly be looked upon with suspicion in light of such threats.  And then, there’s Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s response.

In the wake of this Weekend’s events, the Donald called for profiling to be employed, saying on Fox News: “Our local police — they know who a lot of these people are. They are afraid to do anything about it because they don’t want to be accused of profiling.”

Claiming that we don’t have a choice but to profile, the reality TV star said that “We’re trying to be so politically correct in our country, and this is only going to get worse.”

To say the least, it is a little troubling that we have a candidate of a major political party who is brazenly going out there, saying such things.  Saying these things, mind you, despite the immorality, the ineffectiveness, and the illegality of such a strategy.

On this point alone, the reality TV star should be disqualified from Presidential office.  And with the Donald, this is simply scratching the surface.

In light of the pipe-bomb in Seaside, NJ.  The bombs in Chelsea, NY. The multiple stabbing in Minnesota. That the police arrested the New York bomber in the town next to where I live in New Jersey, I thought I would bring this back to political polling to take my mind off how close this was to all of us.

First, we know, historically, when the public wants to feel safe they tend to vote Republican. We also know that this race is tightening. I still wonder how but I think that a lot of it goes to questions of safety and who is to blame (Muslims, immigrants, Mexicans). I have my theories on why but my real question is, and we will find out in a few days, will the events of this past weekend give Trump yet another bump and close the gap. Five-thirty-eight has Clinton winning with 273 electoral votes. Yes, that’s three electoral votes away from a loss. A few weeks ago I thought Clinton would win in a landslide; now I am trying to see what state-level organizations I can donate money too.

So, do you believe that this will help Trump? If more terrorism happens between now and the election could we be rubbernecking a Trump Presidency as we speed toward election day?

With the election around the corner, presidential nominees are fighting for the all too important women’s vote. Trump is attempting to appeal to female voters, who he has long alienated throughout much of his campaign. As both presidents propose family leave policies, Trump’s appears to fall short in its promises. Aside from the obvious political advantages that seem to motivate Trump’s maternity leave policy, I will give him some credit for making such a surprising proposal for being the GOP candidate. However, his proposal will likely fall short as, his policy offers deductions for the wealthy income brackets of 250k-500k, while only providing a $1,200 annual rebate for families on the lower end of the income scale. Additionally, Trump’s policy only covers mothers, unlike Clinton who would extend leave to both parents. Given the average cost of childcare is $10,000-$20,000, Trump’s policy fails to help those who will need it most. Trump’s policy is being described as a quick attempt to court female voters, while not offering anything significantly to their benefit. Nice try Mr. Trump, but a bare minimum family leave plan will not win over the women’s vote.

In past presidential elections, the Republican party was clearly a friend and champion of business. During a campaign speech in 2012 delivered to the Chamber of Commerce, Romney coined the phrase “job creators” in reference to businesses. Throughout his 2012 presidential campaign, Romney drew a clear distinction between Obama and Democrats, and Republicans and himself. He pushed a narrative that Obama and his party were waging a war against business and that he and the Republicans had their best interest at heart. Ramesh Ponnuru from the National Review wrote post 2012 election analysis that went to the heart of the Republican party problem.

“Most Americans associated the party with big business and the country club, and did not agree with its impulses on the minimum wage, entitlement programs, and other forms of government activism designed to protect ordinary people from cold markets…And even when voters thought Republicans were better managers of the economy in general, they thought the GOP looked out for the rich rather than the common man“.

The 2016 Republican establishment candidates failed to tap into this discontent; all except Trump.

In response to news that the Ford Motor Company planned to build a plant in Mexico to shift its production of smaller lower margin vehicles there, Donald Trump stated that he planned to impose a 35% tax on those vehicles. What Trump’s populist rhetoric failed to acknowledge was two things. First, Ford plans to keep all its current plants open and retain all the employees. What they are doing is a strategic shift in production. They plan to ship off production of small vehicles with thin profit margins and retool to bring back production of larger SUVs and other vehicles with higher margins. The second is that a 35% tariff on Ford would devastate them and potentially lead to them layoff thousands. One could argue that they could avoid the tariffs, which by the way only Congress can levy, by keeping production in the country. However, if Ford deems their margins too thin to keep producing in the U.S., the is a good chance that they either increase the prices significantly or the cease production of those vehicles altogether. Another consideration is this, just because a car is being “produced” in Mexico does not mean it is all being made there. Many of the parts are still produced in the U.S. where the production capacity and infrastructure for production already exists.

Donald Trump seems to be using his populist rhetoric to take aim at the boogeyman in the closet, Mexico, and the one under the bed, China. The fact that Donald Trump jumped into Batman-like action at the news of Ford’s intended investment in a plant in Mexico while he seemed to have completely ignored news in April of a similar investment in a plant in South Africa is glaring. It appears that he is playing to the popular hatred of free trade by attacking its symbols of NAFTA (Mexico) and the TPP (China). It is this populist campaign that has so many people asking if Donald Trump really represents the Republican party values. And if so, does the party need to reintroduce itself to the nation… 

The conflict in Syria is complicated to say the least. You can’t really call it a civil war because there’s about 40 different groups fighting each other. Combine that with Russia/Iran, and the U.S. all backing different parties, the conflict can be difficult to keep track of. The New York Times published this piece this weekend that breaks down the conflict and explains the war in layman’s terms.

“The core conflict is between forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad and the rebels who oppose him. Over time, both sides fractured into multiple militias, including local and foreign fighters, but their fundamental disagreement is over whether Mr. Assad’s government should stay in power.”

Germany was the primary destination for the millions of refugees that entered the EU over the past 18 months. The Washington Post took a look at the lives of six refugees that fled Syria in search of peace and prosperity. The revealing piece shows how difficult the transition for refugees can be.

I can’t help but have compassion for these people. I’ve been reading a lot about this topic for over a year now but stories like this really put things in perspective. These people left everything behind because it was no longer safe to stay in the towns and cities they grew up in.

The United States recently admitted it’s 10,000th Syrian refugee. With the wars in the Middle East showing no signs of ending, I think we can expect that number to increase (if Clinton is elected).

According to this update published at the end of August by Rasmussen Reports, Americans are softening their stance on how to manage the illegal immigrants that are already living in the United States.

“41% of Likely U.S. Voters now think legalizing the status of undocumented workers already living in the United States is more important than gaining control of the border, up from 34% in February. Just over half (51%) still believe gaining control of the border is more important when it comes to immigration reform, but that’s down eight points from 59% six months ago.”

Would it be too optimistic to interpret these changes as an indicator of a major decrease in support for Trump? As we get closer to election day the polls are showing that more and more people disagree with one of his biggest selling points, which provides us with just the tiniest bit of hope that Trump supporters may soon see the light and defect.

Hillary Clinton’s recent pneumonia diagnosis has given the media exactly what they’ve been pining for: a freshly committed absolutely unforgivable sin, further proving just how careless and unfit Hillary Clinton is for the ultimate leadership position – I mean really, how dare she get sick? How dare she continue campaigning resolutely, pushing herself to her body’s physical limit because she knows that the future of the U.S. depends on her defeating her opponent? And finally, how DARE she attempt to maintain a microscopic bit of privacy surrounding her health and not immediately share her medical issues with the entire world? Of course, Hillary went into this campaign knowing that her every move, every thought, and every cough would be scrutinized. That’s par for the course when you put in a bid for the Presidency. But, as one human being thinking about the decisions made by another human being, I can understand the choice she made especially now that I see what was waiting for her on the other side. You can’t blame her for trying to avoid adding any more fuel to the fire her opponents are building for the final step of their witch hunt. She knew that going public with her diagnosis would spur an inevitable onslaught of every news outlet respectfully reporting the facts making baseless presumptions about “what this all means for America” (or some other dramatic derivative of that phrase repeated ad nauseum). The right wants to discredit her completely and this pneumonia diagnosis has lent them just the lighting they need to best showcase their newest piece of “evidence” proving that Hillary is not a viable contender in this race. The media’s ultimate goal is to make money and that means they must, and they will, do everything in their power to attract the public’s attention.

MORE READERS!

MORE LISTENERS!

MORE VIEWERS!

The best way to achieve this noble goal of MORE MORE MORE? In this particular case they chose to turn something relatively benign into fodder for thousands of unfounded and over dramatic articles, soundbites, and video clips, forever looping on the news channels and through our brains. The majority of what is reported in a case such as this can be categorized as hyperbolic click-bait, but we cannot be so naive as to underestimate the effect it has on shaping public opinion – our topic for this week’s class. The ever-present media and their increasingly sneaky ways of getting their stories on the express train to our eyeballs makes reading the news akin to sifting through a pile of garbage looking for a few flakes of gold scattered throughout. The ability to filter out the nonsense and be able to recognize the worthy items is a necessary skill – one that I look forward to sharpening over the semester.  While ingesting all the bits of “information” that we are constantly being fed by the legions of news outlets out there, it is vital to remember that there are ulterior motives at play here. In many cases integrity is shamelessly compromised in the name of profit. Every action the media takes is calculated and deliberate and it would serve us all well to keep that fact in mind while going about our daily lives – especially during this crucial time leading up to the election.

To end on a lighter note, the Huffington Post published a compilation of tweets all related to the issue of Hillary Clinton’s health. It’s titled “12 Perfect Responses To Hillary Clinton Being A Human and Getting Sick” and it is simultaneously hilarious, depressing, and infuriating. If you want to laugh even harder, this painfully sarcastic article shown to me by Jonathan will not leave you disappointed.